Main Article Content


The APBD aims to coordinate financing within local government and create transparency in local government budgets. The components of the APBD consist of regional income, regional spending and budget financing . In the process of preparing the APBD, the structure and contents of the APBD are adjusted to the needs of government administration and regional government revenues within one fiscal year. This type of research uses a quantitative approach with a research design of hypothesis testing studies . In sample research, this research uses purposive sampling with the aim of obtaining a representative sample according to the criteria, namely the Provincial Government which has the highest SILPA in 2021. The dependent variable Budget Forecast Errors has an average of 1.39 and a maximum value of 9.45. The minimum value is 0.91 and the standard deviation value is 1.79. These results can be explained that the Regional Original Income variable has a high average value when compared to the standard deviation, which is 103.74 greater than 12.84. The independent variable Balancing Fund has an average value of 100.62, a maximum value of 106.85, a minimum value of 95.66, and a standard deviation value of 3.26. These results can be explained that the average value of the Other Legal Regional Income variables is relatively high when compared to the standard deviation, which is 114.74 greater than 43.78. The independent variable Direct Spending has an average value of 91.21, a maximum value of 115.34, a minimum value of 58.88, and a standard deviation value of 13.42.


Local Government Financial Budget Forecast Error Government Financial Factors

Article Details

How to Cite
Angi, Y. F., Dethan, M. A., & Tiwu, , M. I. H. (2022). The Influence of Local Government Financial Factors on the 2021 Budget Forecast Error: Studies on Local Governments in Indonesia. Kontigensi : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 10(2), 333-340.


  1. Ariffianto, M., & Adhariani, D. (2018). Budget surplus determinants in Indonesian Regional Government Budgets from a budgetary slack behavior point of view. International Journal of Economics and Management, 12(1), 17-29
  2. Bappenas. (2003). Map of provincial regional financial capacity in the era of regional autonomy: Overview of PAD performance, and efforts made by the regions. Directorate of Regional Autonomy Development
  3. Boukari, M., & Veiga, FJ (2018). Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach. Journal of Comparative Economics, 46(4), 1030-1045. doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2018.03.002
  4. Jonung, L., Larch, M., Favero, CA, & Martin, P. (2006). Improving fiscal policy in the EU: The case for independent forecasts. Economics Policy, 21(47), 491-534.
  5. Patty, Roland Jancen (2019). Budget Forecast Errors And Budget Deviation: Financial Capability Index As Moderating Variable, vol.5, Number 2, Jul-Dec 2019, 157-175
  6. Penner, G. Rudolph. (2001). Errors In Budget Forecasting. The Urban Institute.
  7. Ratu, Mustika Dewi & Siti, Magfiroh., Irianing Supalinah. (2021). The Political, Institutional and Economic Determinants of Budget Forecast Errors and Their Consequences on Economic Growth: evidence from Indonesia. International Sustainable Competitiveness Advantage.2021
  8. Safitri, Aulia Dara (2020). Safitri, Aulia Dara (2020). The Influence of Financial Factors on Budget Forecast Errors of Local Governments in Indonesia (Empirical Studies on Local Governments in Indonesia in 2018). Thesis, Muahammdiyah University, Surakarta.
  9. Siregar, B & Lilis. (2019). Determinants of Budget Forecast Errors and Their Impacts on Budget effectiveness: evidence from the Indonesian Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventures Vol. 21, No. 3, December 2018 – March 2019, pages 391 - 399.
  10. Siregar, B. (2017). Public sector accounting: accrual-based local government financial accounting. Second Edition. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.
  11. Wildavsky, A. (1975). Budgeting: A comparative theory of budget processes. Little. Brown & Co., Boston.